/PRNewswire/ -- Foreclosure Deals, an online leader in the foreclosed homes for sale listings and information industry, announced today that foreclosures increased by 4% nationwide during July and still have fall in the month of August. The month's total of 325,225 homes represents a 10% decrease from foreclosure totals in June 2009, and indicate that the trend of rising bank repossessions is continuing well into the summer.
Using statistics drawn from the Foreclosure Deals database of foreclosure properties, the company revealed that bank repossessions, also known as REO properties, totaled 94,500 during July with a drop of less than 1% in the month of August, nearly matching the single-month record. Bank repossessions represent the final stage of the foreclosure process, but are still sold for discounts as bank owned homes. Notices of default, which mark a new foreclosure, were up 1% in July, but down over 28% from July of 2009.
The trend of increasing bank repossessions and fewer Notice of Default has been the case for several months, but experts are careful to point out that it does not signal that the foreclosure market is flagging.
"Foreclosure totals are up over 300,000 for the month of August, and that's a huge number," remarked James Foxx, a business analyst with Foreclosure Deals. "A lot of bank repos are occurring because they're finally clearing out the huge log of properties that have been in foreclosure limbo due to moratoriums, loan negotiations and similar delays. Notices of default are down, but a lot of that has to do with foreclosure prevention programs. So we're cutting down on new foreclosures, but there are still plenty of bank-owned homes out there, keeping the foreclosure inventory high."
The top 5 states for foreclosure totals, California, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Arizona, all saw foreclosures increase during August by at least 7%, except for California, which saw its totals decrease slightly by 3.1%. Illinois saw a staggering monthly increase of 33% mainly in Chicago.
The states with the highest rates of foreclosure however, Arizona, Florida and Nevada, all saw a dramatic decrease in foreclosures from August of 2009. Other states saw their foreclosure rate increase dramatically during the same time period, including Michigan, up 128%; Illinois, up 35%; Maryland, up 35%; and Georgia, up 13%.
"A lot of buyers are reporting great deals on bank repossessions," notes Foxx. "Banks are looking to get rid of that surplus inventory, and prices have been very competitive."
Foreclosure Deals is a leading source for detailed foreclosure listings, news and information for buyers and investors. For more information on foreclosures or to browse listings in your area, visit www.ForeclosureDeals.com.
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Thursday, September 2, 2010
Number of Foreclosures in August, 2010 Still Falling
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
LendingTree.com Weekly Mortgage Rate Pulse Reports Rates Fall to New Lows
LendingTree lowest rates for Georgia - 3.88% (4.01% APR)
/PRNewswire/ -- Mortgage rates fell to new lows this week, according to the LendingTree Weekly Mortgage Rate Pulse, a snapshot of the lowest and average mortgage rates available within the LendingTree network of lenders.
On August 17, lenders on the LendingTree network offered mortgage rates as low as 4.00 percent (4.13% APR) for a 30-year fixed mortgage, 3.5 percent (3.85% APR) for a 15-year fixed mortgage and 2.875 percent (3.41% APR) for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). Rates fell one eighth of a point week-over-week for all product types.
Average home loan rates offered by lenders on the LendingTree network were 4.52 percent (4.70% APR) for 30-year fixed mortgages, 4.14 percent (4.43% APR) for 15-year fixed mortgages and 3.48 percent (3.72% APR) for 5/1 ARMs.
"The current rate spread has widened to 108 basis points or 1.08%, approaching the high of 111 basis points we reached at the end of July," said Cameron Findlay, Chief Economist of LendingTree.com. "For perspective, the median spread this year has been 74 basis points. So consumers in the market for a home loan should really be doing their homework to ensure they're getting the best possible deal before locking in a rate. Spreads this wide provide an opportunity for borrowers to take control by using sites like LendingTree.com to negotiate with multiple lenders."
Below is a state-by-state comparison of mortgage data including a snapshot of the lowest 30-year fixed rates offered by lenders on the LendingTree network, average loan-to-value ratio and percentage of consumers with negative equity.
Additional refinance mortgage rates are available at http://www.lendingtree.com/mortgage-loans/rates/.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Bankrate: Mortgage Rates Hit 4th Record in a Row!
/PRNewswire/ -- Mortgage rates moved lower this week, with the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate hitting another record low of 4.57 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.48 discount and origination points.
To see mortgage rates in your area, go to http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/mortgages.
The average 15-year fixed mortgage retreated to 4.06 percent, and the larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate dropped to 5.27 percent, both record lows. Adjustable rate mortgages were mixed, with the average 3-year ARM nosing higher to 4.18 percent and the average 5-year ARM dipping to 3.92 percent.
The latest decline in mortgage rates followed a poor jobs report for July and the Federal Reserve's announcement about reinvesting bond proceeds in order to juice the economy. By reinvesting in more government bonds, the Fed aims to keep rates near these ultra-low levels. But low rates alone won't revive the housing market as would-be borrowers remain worried about job loss, don't have equity in their homes, or lack sufficient money for a downpayment.
The last time mortgage rates were above 6 percent was Nov. 2008. At that time, the average rate was 6.33 percent, meaning a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,241.86. With the average rate now 4.57 percent, the monthly payment for the same size loan would be $1,021.71, a savings of $220 per month for a homeowner refinancing now.
SURVEY RESULTS
30-year fixed: 4.57% -- down from 4.66% last week (avg. points: 0.48)
15-year fixed: 4.06% -- down from 4.11% last week (avg. points: 0.42)
5/1 ARM: 3.92% -- down from 3.95% last week (avg. points: 0.28)
Bankrate's national weekly mortgage survey is conducted each Wednesday from data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.
For a full analysis of this week's move in mortgage rates, go to http://www.bankrate.com/.
The survey is complemented by Bankrate's weekly Rate Trend Index, in which a panel of mortgage experts predicts which way the rates are headed over the next seven days. Nearly half of the panelists, 47 percent, say mortgage rates aren't headed anywhere and will remain more or less unchanged. But 40 percent forecast still lower mortgage rates and just 13 percent predict mortgage rates will rise in the next week.
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Monday, August 9, 2010
Negative Equity Falls in Second Quarter, But National Home Values Continue to Decline
/PRNewswire/ -- Home values in the United States continued to decline in the second quarter of 2010, with the Zillow Home Value Index(1) falling 3.2 percent year-over-year and 0.6 percent from the first quarter to $182,500. The national rate of decline decelerated from the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of slowing declines, and negative equity(2) fell to 21.5 percent, according to the second quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports(3).
Negative equity, which refers to the percentage of single-family homeowners with mortgages who are underwater, fell from 23.3 percent in the first quarter, and from 23 percent one year ago.
Conditions varied among individual markets across the country. In California, where both federal and state tax credits are available to some homebuyers, more than a quarter (27.8 percent) of markets tracked by Zillow saw increases in home values in the past year. Home values in five California markets have increased for the past five quarters, and four of those have increased by more than 5 percent since the second quarter of 2009. The Zillow Home Value Index was up 7.3 percent year-over-year in the San Diego metropolitan statistical area (MSA); up 5.9 percent in the San Francisco MSA; up 5.6 percent in the San Jose MSA; and up 5.5 percent in the Los Angeles MSA.
Meanwhile, home values in Florida and Arizona continued to show dramatic declines, with home values in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA falling 15.2 percent year-over-year and home values in the Phoenix MSA falling 11.8 percent.
"As the national housing market limps toward stabilization, individual markets are a mixed bag," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "The double tax credits for some California homebuyers have certainly stimulated housing demand there and are partly responsible for the rapid - and likely unsustainable - rates of appreciation in many markets across the state. While there is some uncertainty about how home values will respond in those markets once all incentives are removed, it's certain they can't continue at their current rates of appreciation, but is unlikely they will re-test the low points reached in 2009.
"Markets in other parts of the country, like Miami and Phoenix, are not yet showing signs of reaching a bottom in home values. High supply continues to be a challenge in states like Florida and Arizona.
"Nationally, home values are moving in the right direction as rates of decline continue to slow. There is a large unknown on the horizon, however, as these second quarter numbers are still heavily influenced by the federal homebuyer tax credits, which were available for homes under contract by the end of April. Home sales are declining significantly in the post-tax credits environment, but the impact of falling home sales on already-declining home values is yet to be seen. Recent trends in home values suggest the nation could reach a bottom in the latter half of 2010, but we continue to be cautious about the impact of declining home sales."
Foreclosures(4) again reached a new peak in June, with more than one out of every 1,000 (0.11 percent) U.S. homes being foreclosed upon during the month.
Foreclosure re-sales(5) fell in June, making up 16.9 percent of all U.S. home sales during the month, down from a 2010 high of 19.8 percent in February. Foreclosure re-sales continued to be high in most markets hit hardest by value declines. For example, they made up 55.8 percent of June sales in the El Centro, Calif. MSA, 54.6 percent in the Madera, Calif. MSA and 53.6 percent in the Merced, Calif. MSA. Additionally, more than one-fourth (26 percent) of home sales nationwide sold for less than what the seller originally paid.
Metropolitan
Statistical Zillow Home Value Index
Areas
-----
June QoQ YoY Change Negative
2010 Change Change from Equity*
------ Peak ----
----
United States $182,460 -0.6% -3.2% -23.9% 21.5%
Akron, OH $117,213 0.4% -2.7% -14.1% 26.1%
Albany, NY $188,323 1.5% -1.1% -5.8% 10.7%
Allentown, PA $191,234 -0.3% -1.7% -16.0% 16.8%
Anderson, SC $99,300 1.5% 2.4% -9.6% n/a
Ann Arbor, MI $157,432 -1.2% -10.6% -32.2% 33.0%
Atlanta, GA $142,461 -1.9% -6.0% -22.2% 31.5%
Atlantic City, NJ $200,906 -0.3% -5.0% -27.2% 20.2%
Augusta, GA $107,414 1.1% -6.4% -8.3% 14.5%
Bakersfield, CA $136,554 1.9% -1.4% -50.5% 44.6%
Baltimore, MD $238,527 -1.1% -5.1% -19.2% 19.0%
Bellingham, WA $255,500 0.6% -1.3% -10.1% n/a
Bend, OR $167,531 -2.7% -21.8% -52.6% 40.3%
Boston, MA $331,568 3.2% 3.4% -16.8% 8.3%
Boulder, CO $312,583 2.1% -0.4% -1.9% 9.9%
Bremerton, WA $249,020 -1.0% -4.3% -19.0% 18.6%
Canton, OH $102,763 -0.2% -1.7% -13.6% 23.6%
Cape Cod, MA $318,026 0.4% -2.8% -22.7% 6.9%
Champaign-Urbana, IL $131,512 0.7% -2.2% -3.9% 11.1%
Charleston, SC $170,039 0.0% -5.1% -15.7% 22.0%
Charlotte, NC $148,985 0.1% -4.0% -10.4% 27.3%
Chattanooga, TN $126,967 -2.6% -2.1% -4.7% n/a
Chicago, IL $196,987 1.6% -4.4% -27.2% 28.9%
Chico, CA $203,749 2.9% -0.4% -32.1% 24.7%
Cleveland, OH $119,716 1.5% -1.3% -16.4% 28.8%
Cleveland, TN $123,000 2.8% 0.5% -6.0% n/a
Colorado Springs, CO $189,793 -0.0% -2.0% -7.4% 28.4%
Columbia, SC $122,065 0.0% -2.1% -5.7% 17.3%
Columbus, OH $137,578 -0.3% -2.8% -8.4% 26.4%
Corvallis, OR $244,300 0.8% -4.4% -9.6% n/a
Cumberland, MD $83,500 3.57% 2.10% 0.0% n/a
Dayton, OH $102,713 -0.2% -3.1% -12.9% 22.6%
Daytona Beach, FL $108,300 -1.7% -12.8% -51.4% n/a
Denver, CO $215,969 1.0% 2.5% -7.4% 29.1%
Des Moines, IA $144,550 2.3% -0.1% -2.8% 18.6%
Destin, FL $159,290 0.3% -3.8% -37.3% 37.8%
Detroit, MI $87,147 -1.6% -14.3% -46.0% 31.4%
Durham, NC $180,886 2.3% 3.6% 0.0% 8.4%
El Centro, CA $112,086 -2.2% -11.3% -56.3% 57.5%
Eugene, OR $193,793 -1.8% -6.3% -16.8% 12.8%
Fayetteville, NC $114,036 -0.7% -7.0% -7.0% 11.5%
Flagstaff, AZ $254,385 -3.4% -9.8% -29.5% 19.9%
Fort Collins, CO $219,522 1.2% 1.2% -3.1% 13.0%
Fort Myers, FL $120,479 -0.1% -6.5% -60.2% 51.9%
Fresno, CA $153,117 -0.4% -4.7% -47.8% 38.5%
Gainesville, FL $146,253 1.8% -7.8% -23.2% 22.6%
Grand Junction, CO $177,344 -4.2% -12.6% -20.8% 31.2%
Grand Rapids, MI $116,111 -0.6% -0.4% -18.3% 33.0%
Green Bay, WI $142,896 0.2% -0.7% -5.2% 15.7%
Greensboro, NC $125,125 -0.4% -5.3% -12.1% 11.7%
Greenville, SC $132,853 2.3% -0.4% -1.8% 11.6%
Hanford, CA $118,400 1.1% -14.7% -45.4% n/a
Hartford, CT $224,393 2.2% 1.4% -9.9% 8.3%
Jackson, TN $95,800 2.1% 0.7% -3.4% n/a
Jacksonville, FL $136,265 -3.2% -10.7% -34.6% 49.8%
Jacksonville, NC $140,700 -0.4% 0.5% -0.5% n/a
Johnson City, TN $110,100 2.6% -3.6% -14.3% n/a
Knoxville, TN $134,741 1.7% -4.4% -6.3% 9.4%
Lakeland, FL $99,695 -5.3% -13.9% -47.1% 55.7%
Lancaster, PA $178,064 1.1% -3.2% -7.2% 8.0%
Las Vegas, NV $128,183 -0.4% -12.4% -58.1% 73.9%
Lincoln, NE $134,914 -0.4% -0.1% -5.5% 12.7%
Little Rock, AR $128,012 4.0% 4.4% 0.0% 9.6%
Los Angeles, CA $425,425 2.2% 5.5% -29.7% 16.9%
Madera, CA $151,759 7.8% -0.5% -51.6% 38.4%
Madison, WI $203,332 -0.7% -3.6% -14.8% 12.2%
Medford, OR $179,433 -0.5% -7.7% -37.9% 37.4%
Melbourne, FL $112,654 -4.5% -9.6% -51.6% 43.0%
Memphis, TN $105,058 -0.7% -4.2% -14.3% 33.7%
Merced, CA $110,719 1.2% 1.4% -67.9% 40.0%
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL $146,458 -6.6% -15.2% -52.4% 44.0%
Milwaukee, WI $178,517 1.9% -6.0% -13.0% 22.0%
Minneapolis-St Paul,
MN $185,783 -0.2% -3.1% -24.3% 36.6%
Mobile, AL $105,480 -4.1% -11.7% -20.2% 13.3%
Modesto, CA $146,391 2.2% 0.4% -60.0% 57.5%
Morristown, TN $98,700 0.8% -6.6% -20.7% n/a
Mount Vernon, WA $211,100 -2.7% -13.4% -23.4% n/a
Napa, CA $360,562 0.9% -5.1% -41.1% 37.2%
Naples, FL $216,628 0.5% -3.7% -52.0% 38.5%
Nashville, TN $150,378 -1.6% -6.2% -9.6% 18.1%
New Haven, CT $231,106 2.1% 0.5% -15.9% 10.5%
New London, CT $225,420 2.2% 1.8% -13.1% 10.6%
New York, NY $363,239 -0.5% -2.1% -20.9% 13.5%
Ocala, FL $101,072 -4.1% -15.2% -42.8% 37.7%
Oklahoma City, OK $119,257 4.6% 5.0% 0.0% 6.1%
Olympia, WA $232,744 0.2% -4.2% -10.8% 20.8%
Omaha, NE $139,666 -4.8% -7.0% -8.2% 13.6%
Orlando, FL $124,483 -1.3% -13.8% -51.7% 64.6%
Panama City, FL $150,500 -0.3% -4.9% -42.5% 31.1%
Pensacola, FL $123,252 -2.2% -3.7% -24.5% 32.1%
Philadelphia, PA $208,639 -0.3% 0.0% -11.0% 10.6%
Phoenix, AZ $137,113 -3.6% -11.8% -51.1% 66.8%
Pittsburgh, PA $107,164 1.1% -2.8% -5.1% 5.6%
Pittsfield, MA $194,900 2.5% 1.7% -11.2% n/a
Port St. Lucie, FL $111,812 -4.9% -9.7% -55.9% 55.0%
Portland, OR $230,165 -0.9% -7.1% -22.3% 22.6%
Poughkeepsie, NY $232,640 -2.2% -8.6% -26.1% 12.5%
Prescott, AZ $189,774 -1.7% -6.7% -38.6% 28.2%
Providence, RI $219,102 -1.2% -4.3% -28.0% n/a
Pueblo, CO $108,010 -1.1% -1.7% -13.0% 29.3%
Punta Gorda, FL $121,989 -1.4% 1.4% -48.2% 38.3%
Raleigh, NC $182,578 0.0% -6.8% -11.8% 20.1%
Reading, PA $163,441 0.9% 0.7% -9.0% 9.4%
Reno, NV $181,576 -1.1% -9.0% -49.4% 61.9%
Richmond, VA $200,111 1.6% -2.5% -11.4% 17.4%
Riverside, CA $194,562 1.5% -0.8% -51.7% 49.0%
Rochester, NY $123,158 2.1% 2.8% 0.0% 9.3%
Rockford, IL $109,214 1.2% -2.1% -11.6% 16.3%
Sacramento, CA $234,655 1.0% -2.0% -43.2% 38.1%
Salem, OR $178,122 0.8% -4.5% -16.2% 20.4%
Salinas, CA $303,697 -0.1% 0.6% -56.0% 33.6%
Salisbury, MD $143,900 -3.2% -9.8% -21.1% n/a
San Diego, CA $378,798 2.9% 7.3% -29.7% 20.4%
San Francisco, CA $528,861 2.0% 5.9% -25.1% 19.6%
San Jose, CA $590,686 3.2% 5.6% -20.7% 13.8%
San Luis Obispo, CA $400,845 -0.8% -4.0% -33.3% 17.7%
Santa Barbara, CA $449,368 1.0% 4.2% -33.1% 22.9%
Santa Cruz, CA $507,115 -0.3% -4.1% -30.6% 16.9%
Santa Rosa, CA $374,313 3.6% 1.9% -36.8% 15.8%
Sarasota, FL $150,175 -0.6% -4.4% -51.2% 45.4%
Seattle, WA $288,942 -1.3% -5.9% -24.3% 25.0%
Spartanburg, SC $105,521 0.6% -2.7% -2.9% 12.7%
Spokane, WA $158,933 1.4% -2.6% -15.5% 20.0%
Springfield, OH $91,800 -1.59% -3.52% -10.6% n/a
Springfield, MA $190,256 0.7% -2.3% -12.0% 7.2%
St. Louis, MO $141,073 1.6% -3.3% -10.5% 18.3%
Stamford, CT $393,151 1.6% -0.2% -21.1% 9.6%
Stockton, CA $163,039 2.6% -0.3% -60.3% 53.5%
Sumter, SC $100,500 1.9% -1.7% -14.2% n/a
Tallahassee, FL $149,118 -3.4% -7.2% -18.3% 32.9%
Tampa, FL $118,670 -0.1% -8.2% -45.1% 45.3%
Toledo, OH $93,489 -0.3% -4.7% -23.2% 26.5%
Tucson, AZ $160,341 -0.5% -6.4% -31.7% 41.4%
Tulsa, OK $117,135 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% 6.1%
Utica, NY $99,710 2.8% 1.7% -5.0% 8.4%
Vallejo, CA $217,225 3.9% -2.6% -54.1% 49.7%
Ventura, CA $418,875 1.2% 3.7% -33.3% 18.9%
Vero Beach, FL $121,439 -1.1% -8.5% -48.6% 42.5%
Visalia, CA $136,442 -1.7% -6.7% -44.1% 37.5%
Washington, DC $330,573 1.0% 1.8% -24.2% 25.0%
Winston-Salem, NC $134,546 2.4% 1.6% -2.9% 10.1%
Worcester, MA $214,437 1.2% -0.8% -24.6% 20.2%
Yakima, WA $137,586 -0.3% -2.3% -3.7% 7.2%
York, PA $154,688 -0.3% -2.6% -13.5% 15.1%
Yuba City, CA $153,200 1.4% -5.2% -51.3% n/a
Yuma, AZ $124,500 -1.0% -10.3% -33.2% n/a
-------- -------- ---- ----- ----- ---
*Negative equity refers to the percent of single-family
homeowners with mortgages
-------------------------------------------------------
(1) The Zillow Home Value Index is the median Zestimate valuation for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. The Home Value Index at the national level is calculated using a weighted average of the median home value for each county and includes data from 440 metropolitan statistical areas. It is expressed in dollars and is for a particular geographic region.
(2) Negative equity is calculated of all single-family homes with mortgages. Zillow began calculating negative equity with this methodology in the first quarter of 2009.
(3) The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 124 Metropolitan Statistical Areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office.
(4) Foreclosures are defined as a Trustee's Deed Upon Sale or equivalent transaction.
(5) Foreclosure re-sales capture mostly sales of bank-owned (REO) homes. It measures sales of homes that were foreclosed on in the previous 12 months.
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Thursday, May 13, 2010
Bankrate: Mortgage Rates Decline Amid Market Volatility
/PRNewswire/ -- Mortgage rates were down for the third week in a row, with the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 5.07 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.42 discount and origination points.
To see mortgage rates in your area, go to http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/mortgages/
The average 15-year fixed mortgage stepped down to 4.45 percent and the larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate sank to 5.85 percent. Adjustable rate mortgages were mostly lower, with the average 3-year ARM backpedalling to 4.44 percent while the 5-year ARM dropped to 4.27 percent.
Worries over European debt rattled financial markets and brought mortgage rates to the lowest level since St. Patrick's Day. Once again mortgage shoppers were direct beneficiaries as nervous investors equate to lower mortgage rates. Furthermore, this cloud of global economic uncertainty likely gives the Federal Reserve even more latitude to hold the line on interest rates, so mortgage rates will stay a little lower, a little longer, than what was forecast just a few weeks ago.
The last time mortgage rates were above 6 percent was Nov. 2008. At that time, the average rate was 6.33 percent, meaning a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,241.86. With the average rate now 5.07 percent, the monthly payment for the same size loan would be $1,082.22, a savings of $159 per month for a homeowner refinancing now.
SURVEY RESULTS
30-year fixed: 5.07% -- down from 5.12% last week (avg. points: 0.42)
15-year fixed: 4.45% -- down from 4.49% last week (avg. points: 0.39)
5/1 ARM: 4.27% -- down from 4.31% last week (avg. points: 0.35)
Bankrate's national weekly mortgage survey is conducted each Wednesday from data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.
For a full analysis of this week's move in mortgage rates, go to http://www.bankrate.com/mortgagerates
The survey is complemented by Bankrate's weekly Rate Trend Index, in which a panel of mortgage experts predicts which way the rates are headed over the next seven days. Nearly two-thirds of the panelists, 64 percent, don't expect much change in mortgage rates and forecast that rates will be more or less unchanged over the next week. Count 29 percent as predicting an increase in mortgage rates, with just 7 percent foreseeing further declines over the next seven days.
For the full mortgage Rate Trend Index, go to http://www.bankrate.com/RTI
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
The Pace of Home Price Declines Moderate in April According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
/PRNewswire/ -- Data through April 2009, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller(1) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved.
"The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month's data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.
"The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market," Mr. Blitzer commented.
In terms of annual declines, the three worst performing MSAs continue to be the same three from the Sunbelt. Phoenix was down 35.3% in April, Las Vegas declined 32.2% and San Francisco fell 28.0%. Denver, Dallas and Boston continue to fare the best in terms of annual declines down 4.9%, 5.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Portland and Seattle posted record annual declines in April. For the month Dallas was the best performer returning +1.7%, while Las Vegas was the worst performer down 3.5%.
Looking at the data from relative peaks-through-April 2009, Dallas has suffered the least, down 9.6% from its peak in June 2007; while Phoenix is down 54.1% from its peak in June of 2006. Excluding Dallas, all of the 20 metro areas are in double digit declines from their peaks, with 10 of the MSAs posting declines of greater than 30% and two of those - Phoenix and Las Vegas - in excess of 50%.
The table below summarizes the results for April 2009. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 21 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.
Metropolitan April 2009 April/March March/February
Area Level Change (%) Change (%) 1-Year Change (%)
------------ ----- ---------- ---------- -----------------
Atlanta 105.36 0.3% -1.5% -14.8%
Boston 146.45 0.4% -2.0% -7.7%
Charlotte 118.69 -0.5% 0.3% -10.0%
Chicago 122.30 0.0% -3.1% -18.7%
Cleveland 98.07 1.2% -0.9% -10.5%
Dallas 114.39 1.7% 0.1% -5.0%
Denver 122.17 1.5% 0.1% -4.9%
Detroit 69.92 -1.5% -4.9% -25.4%
Las Vegas 112.39 -3.5% -3.8% -32.2%
Los Angeles 159.37 -0.9% -1.4% -21.3%
Miami 145.77 -2.0% -3.6% -27.3%
Minneapolis 108.63 -0.7% -5.9% -22.1%
New York 170.33 -1.7% -2.6% -12.5%
Phoenix 104.45 -2.2% -4.5% -35.3%
Portland 146.85 -0.6% -2.1% -16.0%
San Diego 144.43 -0.1% -1.5% -20.0%
San Francisco 118.46 0.6% -2.2% -28.0%
Seattle 149.38 0.2% -2.0% -16.8%
Tampa 140.41 -0.7% -2.7% -21.3%
Washington 167.30 0.8% -1.3% -16.9%
Composite-10 150.34 -0.7% -2.1% -18.0%
Composite-20 139.18 -0.6% -2.2% -18.1%
------------ ------ ---- ---- -----
Source: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv
Data through April 2009
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by Standard & Poor's, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Homeowner Perception Changing: Most No Longer In Denial About U.S. Housing Slide
/PRNewswire/ -- American homeowners' perceptions of the value of their own homes moved more in line with reality at the end of 2008, at least when it came to hindsight. More than half (57 percent) believe their own home lost value during the year, according to the Zillow Q4 Homeowner Confidence Survey(1). This is markedly more than the 38 percent who believed their home's value was declining when asked during the second quarter of 2008.
In reality, 76 percent of all U.S. homes lost value in 2008, according to analysis of the Zillow Q4 Real Estate Market Reports. With these new findings, Zillow's Home Value Misperception Index(2) shrunk to 10 in the fourth quarter, from 16 in the third and 32 in the second quarter. An index of zero would mean homeowners' perceptions were in line with actual values.
Homeowners May Believe A Bottom Has Been Reached
However, when asked what the near future will bring for their homes, most homeowners expressed optimism, and appear to believe that the worst may be over. According to the survey, more than two-thirds (70 percent) of homeowners believe their home's value will either increase or stay the same in the first six months of 2009. Only 30 percent believe it will decrease.
"It's clear that the 'not my house' sentiment that was so prevalent in earlier surveys is waning, and homeowners are opening their eyes to the unfortunate reality of significant losses in home values across most of the country," said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics. "That said, there's a curious optimism for homeowners when asked about the future - most seem to believe we've hit a bottom and the worst has passed. Unfortunately, the data tells another story. With year-over-year home value losses continuing to accelerate, most areas of the country will see housing values get worse before they begin to stabilize."
Meanwhile, homeowners' optimism for the future does not extend to their neighbors' homes. While 70 percent of homeowners think their own homes' values will increase or stay the same in the first half of 2009, only 52 percent believe home values in their local market will increase or stay the same during the same time period. Nearly half (48 percent) think values in their local market will decrease, but only 30 percent believe the same will happen to their own homes.
Homeowners are still more optimistic about their local market than in the third quarter, however, when more than half (57 percent) said values in their local market would decrease in the next six months.
Homeowner Perception by Region
Homeowner Perception of HomeWith a Misperception Index of only 3 - down from 20 in the third quarter - the perception of homeowners in the Northeast was closest to reality. Well over half (57 percent) of Northeastern homeowners believe their own home's value declined during 2008, while 20 percent believed it stayed the same. According to Zillow's fourth quarter data, 71 percent of homes in the Northeast declined in value during 2008.
Value Change in Past Year
by Region US 2008 Northeast Midwest South West
My Home's Value Has
Decreased 57% 58% 58% 47% 70%
My Home's Value Has
Stayed the Same 18% 20% 20% 20% 11%
My Home's Value Has
Increased 25% 23% 22% 33% 19%
Market Reality: Homes Reporting Year-over-Year Value Changes in Q4,
according to Zillow
Actual Percent of Homes
that Decreased 76% 71% 73% 70% 90%
Actual Percent of Homes
that Stayed the Same
(+/-1%) 4% 6% 5% 5% 2%
Actual Percent of Homes
that Increased 20% 24% 22% 25% 9%
Q4 Home Value
Misperception Index 10 3 5 14 13
Q3 Home Value
Misperception Index 16 20 15 13 13
Q2 Home Value
Misperception Index 32 29 31 36 23
Homeowner Perception of Own Home's Value in Next Six Months
My Home's Value Will
Decrease 30% 30% 30% 26% 37%
My Home's Value Will
Stay the Same 43% 43% 46% 45% 38%
My Home's Value Will
Increase 27% 27% 24% 29% 25%
Homeowners in the West, where values were hardest-hit, lost some of their optimism in the fourth quarter, but home values continued to edge downward, leaving Western homeowners' perceptions among the farthest from reality with a Misperception Index of 13 (the same as last quarter). Southerners' perceptions were farthest from reality, with a Misperception Index of 14.
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Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Economic Slump Weakens Pending Home Sales
/PRNewswire/ -- After holding fairly stable for a year, pending home sales declined in the face of job losses and an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors(R).
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 4.0 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised reading of 85.7 in October, and is 5.3 percent below November 2007 when it was 86.9. The current index is the lowest since the series began in 2001.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a weakening was inevitable. "Mounting job losses and very weak consumer confidence deterred home buyers from signing contracts in November," he said. "December's housing market activity could be comparably lower due to ongoing problems in the economy, so a real estate-focused stimulus plan is urgently needed."
Yun said the outlook will depend heavily on the stimulus package. "With a proper real-estate focused stimulus measure, home sales could rise more than expected, by more than 10 percent to 5.5 million in 2009, and easily begin to stabilize home prices in many parts of the country. Stable home prices will, in turn, lessen foreclosure pressures and lay the foundations for a solid economic recovery as the nation's 75 million homeowners regain confidence," he said.
The impact of mortgage interest rates declining to near 50-year lows in December is not reflected in current data.
The PHSI in the Northeast dropped 7.2 percent to 63.2 in November and is 14.6 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell 6.7 percent to 74.2 and is 10.1 percent below November 2007. The index in the South declined 2.2 percent to 85.3 in November and is 12.7 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index was down 2.4 percent to 101.2 but remains 19.3 percent higher than November 2007.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said there can't be an economic recovery without a focus on housing. "It's crucial for Congress and the new administration to move quickly to remove impediments and offer home buyers the incentives they need to tap into today's historic low mortgage interest rates," he said.
"NAR advocates expanding a $7,500 tax credit to all home buyers and eliminating the repayment feature, and permanently raising loan limits to bring down interest rates for many buyers in high-cost areas. We also need to expedite short sales and unclog the mortgage pipeline," McMillan said.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage should hold fairly steady through the first half of the year and rise slightly in the second half. NAR's housing affordability index, which looks at the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income, is on track to match a record high set in 1972.
"The unique housing affordability conditions in today's market underscore the opportunity in giving consumers the necessary incentives to stimulate our economy through a housing recovery," Yun said.
The National Association of Realtors(R), "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Home Price Declines Worsen As We Enter the Fourth Quarter of 2008 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
/PRNewswire/ -- Data through October 2008, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller(1) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007.
"The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March, 2004 levels," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "Both composite indices and 14 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. As of October 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 25.0% from its mid-2006 peak, and the 20-City Composite is down 23.4%. In October, we also saw three new markets enter the 'double-digit' club. Atlanta, Seattle and Portland are reporting annual rates of decline of 10.5%, 10.2% and 10.1%, respectively. While not yet experiencing as severe a contraction as in the Sunbelt, it seems the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic South is not immune to the overall demise in the housing market."
Three of the metro areas have given back, on average, more than 30% of the value of homes since October of last year. Phoenix remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 32.7%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.7%, and San Francisco down 31.0%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego were close behind with annual declines of 29.0%, 27.9% and 26.7%, respectively.
Monthly data also do not show much improvement in the national housing market. All 20 metro areas, and the two composites, posted their second consecutive monthly decline. In addition, six of the MSAs had their largest monthly decline on record -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington. Most of the positive monthly data recorded in the spring and summer months, merely reflects seasonal patterns in home prices, as opposed to a turnaround in the downward spiral in national home prices.
Dallas and Charlotte faired the best in October in terms of relative year-over-year returns. Still in negative territory, their declines remained in low single digits of -3.0% and -4.4%, respectively. It should be noted, however, that both of these values are worse than those reported in the September data. In addition, Charlotte also reported its second consecutive largest monthly decline on record, down 1.8%. Cleveland and Denver were the only markets that showed any improvement in its year-over-year returns compared to last month's report.
The table below summarizes the results for October 2008. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 21 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com
October/ September/
October September August
2008 Change Change 1-Year
Metropolitan Area Level (%) (%) Change (%)
----------------- ----- ------- ------- ----------
Atlanta 119.77 -2.4% -1.3% -10.5%
Boston 159.17 -1.1% -1.1% -6.0%
Charlotte 128.02 -1.8% -1.3% -4.4%
Chicago 145.49 -1.6% -1.1% -10.8%
Cleveland 108.76 -1.0% -0.6% -6.2%
Dallas 120.60 -1.1% -0.7% -3.0%
Denver 129.05 -1.5% -1.3% -5.2%
Detroit 86.10 -4.5% -2.5% -20.4%
Las Vegas 142.57 -2.7% -2.6% -31.7%
Los Angeles 179.82 -2.6% -2.5% -27.9%
Miami 173.42 -3.0% -2.6% -29.0%
Minneapolis 135.71 -3.4% -1.0% -16.3%
New York 190.04 -0.9% -0.9% -7.5%
Phoenix 135.18 -3.3% -3.5% -32.7%
Portland 166.44 -1.9% -1.3% -10.1%
San Diego 159.12 -3.0% -2.4% -26.7%
San Francisco 139.44 -4.2% -3.9% -31.0%
Seattle 170.45 -1.4% -1.4% -10.2%
Tampa 165.44 -3.4% -1.8% -19.8%
Washington 184.92 -2.7% -2.1% -18.7%
Composite-10 169.78 -2.1% -1.9% -19.1%
Composite-20 158.16 -2.2% -1.8% -18.0%
------------ ------ ---- ---- -----
Source: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv
Data through October 2008
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by Standard & Poor's, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.
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Thursday, December 4, 2008
Housing Prices Continue to Decline Nationwide
(BUSINESS WIRE)--IHS Global Insight, the world's leading company for economic and financial analysis and forecasting, today released the third-quarter 2008 update of the U.S. housing valuation analysis, House Prices in America, showing that single-family U.S. home prices fell at a faster pace across a wide area of the country — after moderating earlier in the year — and are now 6.5% below their 2007 peak. House prices fell at a 6.9% annualized pace, affecting 241 of the 330 analyzed metropolitan areas, up from 150 metro areas in the second-quarter 2008. For the United States as a whole, the housing market is now slightly undervalued. When weighted by market value, the nation is 3.8% undervalued; when weighted by housing units, it is 5.7% undervalued.
While the contraction in residential real estate value is national in scope, it is most severe in the Southeast and Southwest, areas which were among the most overvalued in the country three years ago. According to the third-quarter analysis, extreme overvaluation is now "essentially nonexistent" — only three metro areas met the definition of extreme overvaluation, down from a peak of 52 metro areas in 2005. Only the Pacific Northwest remains overvalued.
According to the analysis, the overhang of unsold properties trending downward during the third quarter, and demand picking up slightly, the accelerated pace of depreciation likely reflects financing conditions that became increasingly stringent and expensive during this period. Recent policy responses, from the Federal Reserve in particular, to purchase mortgage-backed securities are not likely to have a significant impact until next year.
Home prices fell more than 10% in the third quarter in nine central California communities. The Central Valley communities of Merced, Stockton, and Modesto have seen property values fall to less than half their 2005 value. Twenty-nine metro areas in California, Florida, and Nevada — at one time among the most overvalued — have seen price declines in excess of 30%. Similar steep price drops are also occurring in Michigan, northeast Ohio, the southern metro areas from Charlotte to Atlanta, as well as in New England.
The incidence of extreme overvaluation has become negligible; only Atlantic City, New Jersey; Bend, Oregon; and St. George, Utah met the criteria. Overvalued markets are mainly located in the Pacific Northwest, extending to Utah. Southern metro areas from Mississippi to Texas remain generally undervalued.
Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist and manager of IHS Global Insight's Regional Real Estate Service, added, "Weak economic conditions and wary consumers continue to hold the housing market back. Although many areas are seeing home sales increase, it is largely due to foreclosure homes being snapped up at significantly discounted prices. As the inventory of these homes is removed from the market, prices will remain on a downward path."
James Diffley, group managing director of IHS Global Insight's Regional Services Group, said, "With no end in sight to the downward spiral of house prices, it is likely that long anticipated market correction will now overshoot fundamental valuations on the downside.”
The House Prices in America study, a joint effort by IHS Global Insight and National City Corporation, examines the top 330 U.S. real estate markets, representing 78% of all existing housing units and 86% of all related real estate value, to determine what home prices should be, accounting for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts. Markets with valuation premiums above 35% were deemed at risk for price corrections based on the typical degree of overvaluation that preceded the 79 known local market price declines observed since 1985.
House Prices in America combines a statistical model originally developed by Richard DeKaser, Chief Economist at National City Corporation (www.nationalcity.com/housevaluation) with data largely developed at IHS Global Insight. More information on IHS Global Insight's housing valuation analysis is available at www.globalinsight.com/housingvaluation.
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Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level This Year
Georgia 30 Year Fixed Rate Drops 6.9% to 5.41%.
/PRNewswire/ -- Mortgage rates fell dramatically last week, due to the government's decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgages declined to 5.53 percent, down from 5.92 percent the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate Web site Zillow.com(R). Rates for 15-year fixed mortgages decreased to 5.34 percent, down from 5.69 percent and 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages rose to 6.01 percent from 5.87 percent.
Mortgage Type Average Rate Average Rate % Change
Week ending 11/30/08 Week ending 11/23/08
30-year fixed 5.53% 5.92% -6.5%
15-year fixed 5.34% 5.69% -6.1%
5-1 ARM 6.01% 5.87% 2.4%
Rates for 30-year fixed mortgages fell even further on Monday evening with the average rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace at 5.32 percent.
At a state level, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in New York saw the biggest decrease, falling from 5.96 percent to 5.48 percent. Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages were lowest in the states of Georgia (5.41%) and Washington (5.46%), while Arizona (5.62%) and North Carolina (5.62%) had the highest rates.
The Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor is compiled each week using thousands of mortgage rates quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace (www.zillow.com/mortgage) by mortgage lenders to borrowers who have submitted loan requests. State-level data is gathered for the top 20 states with the highest quote volume on Zillow.
Zillow Mortgage Marketplace is an open and transparent lending marketplace, providing borrowers an anonymous and hassle-free way to receive an unlimited number of customized mortgage quotes directly from confirmed lenders.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2008
National Trend of Home Price Declines Continues Through the Third Quarter of 2008 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Atlanta Market Down 9.5%
/PRNewswire/ -- Data through September 2008, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller(1) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007.
The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index -- which covers all nine U.S. census divisions -- remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively. The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to set new records, with annual declines of 18.6% and 17.4%, respectively.
"The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. Looking at the returns of the U.S. National Index, prices are back to where they were in early 2004. As of September 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 23.4% from its peak, the 20-City Composite is down 21.8% and the National Composite is down 21.0%."
Phoenix was the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 31.9%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.3%, and San Francisco at -29.5%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego did not fair much better with annual declines of 28.4%, 27.6% and 26.3%, respectively.
Dallas and Charlotte faired the best in September in terms of relative year-over-year returns. While also in negative territory, their declines remained in single digits of -2.7% and -3.5%, respectively. However, both are at rates of decline lower than those reported in August's numbers. In addition, Charlotte also reported its largest monthly decline on record, down 1.3%. Monthly returns were negative across the board. Cleveland was the one market that showed any improvement in its year-over-year returns reporting -6.4% compared to the -6.6% reported for August.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by Standard & Poor's, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.
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Monday, November 24, 2008
Existing-Home Sales Soften on Economic Volatility
/PRNewswire/ -- Existing-home sales declined on the heels of a strong gain in September as uncertainty and economic concerns increased in October, according to the National Association of Realtors(R).
Existing-home sales -- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate(1) of 4.98 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.14 million in September, and are 1.6 percent below the 5.06 million-unit level in October 2007.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said consumer hesitation is understandable. "Many potential home buyers appear to have withdrawn from the market due to the stock market collapse and deteriorating economic conditions," he said. "We have favorable affordability conditions, but we need more than that to give buyers with jobs the confidence they need. This is why a housing stimulus is so critical now to encourage more buyers to draw down the inventory and stabilize home prices. Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery."
Total housing inventory at the end of October slipped 0.9 percent to 4.23 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.2-month supply(2) at the current sales pace, up from a 10.0-month supply in September.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.20 percent in October from 6.04 percent in September; the rate was 6.38 percent in October 2007. "Mortgage interest rates have been moving up and down in a historically low range, with the fixed rate down to 6.04 percent last week," Yun noted.
Even with the overall decline, Yun identified a number of areas with solid sales gains from a year ago, including many California and Florida markets, as seen previously, as well as Boston, Minneapolis, and Denver.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said the need for professional assistance is growing. "Navigating the transaction process is easier said than done without professional assistance in today's market," McMillan said. "Proper valuation when many homes are being sold below replacement construction costs is very challenging -- buyers remain in the driver's seat."
The national median existing-home price(3) for all housing types was $183,300 in October, down 11.3 percent from a year ago when the median was $206,700. There remains a significant downward distortion in the current price from a large number of distress sales at discounted prices; the median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
Single-family home sales declined 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October from a level of 4.58 million in September, but are unchanged from a 4.43 million-unit pace in October 2007. The median existing single-family home price was $181,800 in October, down 11.2 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales eased by 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000 units in October from 560,000 in September, and are 12.0 percent below the 625,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price(4) was $193,000 in October, which is 13.0 percent below October 2007.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast slipped 1.2 percent to an annual pace of 830,000 in October, and are 9.8 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $241,700, down 9.8 percent from October 2007.
Existing-home sales in the West eased by 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.21 million in October but are 37.5 percent higher than October 2007. The median price in the West was $231,400, down 27.0 percent from a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales declined 3.2 percent to an annual pace of 1.84 million in October, and are 10.2 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $161,100, which is 5.8 percent lower than October 2007.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 6.0 percent in October to a pace of 1.10 million and remain 9.1 percent below October 2007. The median price in the Midwest was $149,400, down 6.7 percent from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors(R), "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
NOTE: References to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors(R) for more information.
(1) The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau's series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample -- more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month -- and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
(2) Total inventory and month's supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month's supply are available back to 1982. Condos were tracked quarterly prior to 1999 when single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases.
(3) The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.
(4) Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price can be higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.
Existing-home sales for November will be released December 23, and the next Pending Home Sales Index & Forecast is scheduled for release at 10 a.m. EST December 9.
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